I don’t know about you, but with the iPad coming out tomorrow, I’d rather think about whether or not it’s going to fit into my technology mix rather than think about something called “The Withdrawal Rate.” But when it comes to retirement income planning, given it’s one of the most important concepts people should learn, I’ll leave my thoughts about the iPad aside for the moment and pay attention to this ultra-important concept…
A sustainable withdrawal rate is critical to retirement planning. Draw too heavily on your savings, especially in the early years, and you could run out of money too soon. Take too little, and you might needlessly deny yourself the ability to enjoy your money.
In its simplest terms, a withdrawal rate is the percentage you withdraw from an investment portfolio in any particular year. However, in retirement income planning, what’s important is not just your withdrawal rate, but your sustainable withdrawal rate.
A sustainable withdrawal rate represents the maximum amount (expressed as either a dollar amount or a percentage) that can be withdrawn from your retirement assets each year with reasonable certainty that the portfolio will provide income for as long as it’s needed (for example, throughout your lifetime).
A commonly expressed rule of thumb states that your portfolio should last for your lifetime if you initially withdraw 4% of your balance (based on an asset mix of 60% stock and 40% fixed income securities), and then continue withdrawing that same dollar amount each year, adjusted for inflation. However, this rule of thumb has been under increasing scrutiny, and like any rule of thumb, it may not apply to you.
Why is it important?
A sustainable withdrawal rate is critical to retirement planning. Draw too heavily on your savings, especially in the early years, and you could run out of money too soon. Take too little, and you might needlessly deny yourself the ability to enjoy your money. You want to find a rate of withdrawal that gives you the best chance to maximize income over your entire retirement period.
Withdrawal rates are based on a number of assumptions, including your living expenses, projected lifespan, risk tolerance, projected rates of return and inflation, asset allocation, taxes, and whether you wish to leave a portion of your estate to others. As you progress in retirement, you’ll have empirical data against which you can evaluate these assumptions. Plus, your investment horizon will be getting shorter. That’s why it’s important to periodically revisit your withdrawal strategy during your retirement to see if your assumptions are still accurate and whether your strategy needs to be modified.
Dealing with market volatility
If you’re currently withdrawing a fixed percentage of your investment portfolio each year, the amount you receive will fluctuate with the performance of your portfolio. Small changes may not significantly impact your lifestyle. But what if your portfolio suffers a serious decline due to a market downturn? Will you be able to meet your expenses with the reduced withdrawal amount you’ll be receiving? If you’re currently withdrawing a fixed dollar amount each year, you may be able to meet your expenses, but can your reduced portfolio continue to support that same dollar amount or will your assets be depleted much too soon?
The converse of this is also true. If your portfolio realizes a gain that’s significantly greater than your assumptions, a fixed percentage withdrawal will provide you with more dollars than you had been taking. Do you need the additional income? If you’re taking a fixed dollar amount each year, is it time to give yourself a raise?
Market volatility may also lead you to consider changes in your asset allocation. If your portfolio is down, you may be inclined to become more conservative to avoid additional losses; conversely, when your portfolio is up, you might contemplate becoming more bullish. But if your asset allocation is designed to produce sustainable long-term income, changes should be considered carefully and only implemented as part of a disciplined strategy.
Other factors to consider
When you review your withdrawal strategy, make sure you consider the following:
Inflation: Inflation erodes your buying power. If you’ve underestimated the inflation rate, you may need to increase your withdrawals. If your portfolio can’t support additional withdrawals, you’ll need to reduce your expenses, or find another source of income (e.g., parttime work) to maintain your lifestyle. If inflation is lower than you’ve anticipated, you may be able to withdraw less and prolong your portfolio’s income-producing ability.
Lifestyle: You may find that your expenses during retirement decrease from your initial estimate as you travel less or downsize a home–or they may increase because of health care or other costs.
Legacy: A decision to increase or decrease the amount you leave to heirs or charities can have a significant impact on your withdrawal strategy.
Revisiting your withdrawal strategy will allow you to focus on changes that have occurred during your retirement and fine-tune your strategy going forward, helping to ensure your retirement will be a financially secure one.
